The next rail fares inflation rise: will we get more of the same?
The announcement tomorrow of the July inflation rate is normally used as the benchmark for next year’s inflation-linked rise in rail fares. Rail campaigners hope it won’t be inflation busting.
Chris Page, Chair of Railfuture said in anticipation:
“We aren’t expecting to discover the new fares tomorrow – recent practice has been to announce the actual rate of increase only a few weeks before the fare rise occurs.
“When the UK, Welsh and Scottish governments decide how much to bump up fares next year, we want to see decisions that are fair for passengers. The acid tests will be the how the increases compare with costs paid by other modes of travel, most noticeably coaches, air and, of course, the car.
“Domestic British air travellers are paying just over half the previous rate for air passenger duty (as compared to 31 March 2023); vehicle fuel duty has not increased since 2011. Whilst vehicle tax has increased, the sum raised from the combination of these taxes has not increased since 2011.
“But since 2011 British rail fares have risen by over 50%.”
Neil Middleton, Railfuture’s Communications Director commented:
“A rail fare increase could be counterproductive – it could easily price passengers off the railway. A busy train is good for taxpayers – it pays more of the cost of the railway and helps offset cost pressures (including inflation); it is fares multiplied by passengers that matters – the fare alone is academic for predicting income.
“The UK, Welsh and Scottish governments should take time to think strategically about rail fare prices before setting the 2025 fare rises – considering the incentives and disincentives which motivate our choice of rail, car, bus / coach, air etcetera and understanding interactions.
“For instance, the last UK Government cut air passenger duty – now the taxpayer only gets £7 for a journey by air from Edinburgh to London – they could be getting multiple times that from the fare for a rail journey. Heathrow recently reported a 14.7% growth in domestic passengers following the duty reduction, so the loss of revenue is real.
“And then there are elephants in the room for the cost of driving – for instance, what’s the response going to be to the continued (and increasing) loss of fuel duty income as there are more electric vehicles on the road?”
Chris Page, Chair of Railfuture said in conclusion:
“If we are to have an increase it must be kept to less than the published rate for the CPI inflation measure.”
Notes to editors:
Sources
- www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices
- www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-passenger-duty-banding-reforms-from-april-2023/air-passenger-duty-banding-reforms-and-rates-from-1-april-2023-to-31-march-2024
- www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-passenger-duty-rates-from-1-april-2022-to-31-march-2023/air-passenger-duty-rates-from-1-april-2022-to-31-march-2023
- UK travellers Band A £13 to Domestic £7. Note: Scottish Highlands & Islands exempt.
- (On Fuel Duty):
- commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9979/ “Fuel duty – will be frozen for another year by extending the temporary 5p cut and not uprating duty rates with inflation. Fuel duties have not risen since January 2011.
- Office for Budget Responsibility: obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/vehicle-excise-duty/ & obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/
- dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/1692/table-7180-average-change-in-fares-by-regulated-and-unregulated-tickets.ods (2024/2011 for All tickets row)
- (On Domestic Air Passenger growth) www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-manchester-stansted-airport-busiest-july-passengers-b2594914.html
Railfuture is the UK's leading independent organisation campaigning for better rail services for both passengers and freight.
Railfuture's website can be found at: www.railfuture.org.uk
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For further information and comment please contact:
Bruce Williamson, media spokesperson
Tel: 0117 927 2954 Mobile: 07759 557389
media@railfuture.org.uk
Neil Middleton, Director
Mobile: 07887 628367
neil.middleton@railfuture.org.uk